Garbage sites on Flippa

I subscribed to announcements of websites for sale on Flippa. Over the past several months, I’ve noticed an interesting pattern. Here is a notification that arrived in my inbox today: The email summarized a couple listings for websites being auctioned. Both of the above listings make promises in the headlines for 100% “automated” and “work-free” sites. […]

Prediction, Day Trading, and Confirmation Bias

Why do most day traders persist, despite a lack of success? I’ve listened to several day traders speak at length about their progress, and heard a common thread: in explaining their slow progress, they speak of the difficulty of mastering their emotions. The traders don’t know each other, but they follow the same approach to […]

The Fallacy of Entrepreneurship’s Expected Value

There are plenty of popular entrepreneurship motivational bloggers who preach along the lines of “just do it.” Some even attempt to mathematically show the rational move is to initiate your startup. At the core of one  popular analysis is a false premise that leads people into deciding that they should “go for it” despite their […]

The Butterfly Effect

“The Butterfly Effect” is a fascinating theory. Even if you’re not very familiar with it, you likely believe one of its variations to be true at some level. You’ve likely seen two of my favorite movies with interpretations of this idea, “Back to the Future” and “The Butterfly Effect.” The version of the theory that […]